Minutes of SMM Bronze Morning meeting on August 9
[8. 9 SMM minutes of the Bronze Morning meeting]
Macro: 1) the White House delayed a decision on whether to allow US companies and Huawei to restart business after China announced a suspension of purchases of US agricultural products, according to people familiar with the matter. (2) Wholesale sales in the United States fell 0.3% in June from a month earlier, and are expected to increase by 0.2%. In the United States, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the week ended Aug. 3 was 209000, which is expected to be 215000. Us jobless claims fell for the first time last week, a sign of a solid labour market. 3) in renminbi terms, China's exports increased by 14.3 per cent in July from a year earlier, higher than the expected 7 per cent; imports increased by 0.4 per cent, higher than the expected-3.3 per cent; and the trade surplus was 310.26 billion yuan, an increase of 79 per cent. Fundamentals: 1) Copper concentrate: recent protests against the mining industry in Peru have had an impact on the normal transport of Peruvian ore. Since July 18, exports of four copper mines have been affected, including Freeport's Cerro Verde copper mine, Minmetals's Las Bambas copper mine, Glencore's Antapaccay copper mine and Hudbay Mineral's Constancia copper mine. 2) scrap copper: yesterday the price difference of refined scrap was 924 yuan / ton. Shanghai copper rebounded sharply yesterday, scrap copper prices rose significantly, due to recent capital pressure and market speculation due to trade disputes will suppress prices, scrap copper holders shipping sentiment has improved, but overall, the improvement is limited, July is still in the weak season of demand, orders are still on the low side. The overall performance of the scrap copper market is still light. 3) Import copper: yesterday LME0-3 discount 25 US dollars / ton, import loss 100 yuan / ton. Market prices continue to weaken, demand has shown some signs of weakening, high prices have also made the market wait and see. In the first half of the year, imports of electrolytic copper decreased by nearly 260000 tons compared with the same period last year, bonded stocks also declined rapidly, supply-supported holder quotations remained strong, warehouse receipts showed even more cherished selling sentiment, and the premium within the week could still remain at a recent high. 4) stocks: LME copper stocks decreased by 1425 tons to 274525 tons on August 8. Copper warehouse receipt stocks in the previous period were reduced by 1393 tons to 67697 tons. 5) spot: spot due to today's market price center of gravity has moved up, high prices make the market acceptance reduced, the market trading sentiment has become lighter, and the recent strong quotation sentiment of the holder is strong. The market is expected to remain deadlocked today at 50 yuan to 100 yuan per ton of water. Copper prices and forecasts: last night inside and outside the overall upward trend, Lun Copper up to US $5800 / ton level, Shanghai copper center of gravity basically maintained around 46700 yuan / ton shock. Shanghai Copper Index positions fell 12000 hands to 628000, mainly short positions. Copper prices rose last night, mainly due to a easing of risk aversion in the market and a slowdown in gold after opening lower. At present, the sentiment of the market towards the recent trade tensions between China and the United States has been basically digested by the market, and the price of copper has rebounded. However, it is still necessary to guard against the fact that the nature of macroeconomic weakness and trade frictions has not changed, and the potential risks remain. At present, copper prices remain stable at a high level for the time being, but the macro essence still makes the power for copper prices to continue to push higher. It is expected to continue to maintain the concussion pattern today. At present, the Shanghai copper closing cross star is supported by the 10-day moving average, and the technical index has improved slightly. The bronze is expected to be 5740 US $5800 / ton today. Shanghai copper 46400 yuan per ton.
